NIE FIASCO
The administration's in a bad spot right now. It really is. The NIE fiasco has caused it to backtrack and stumble all over itself in trying to explain what the heck they are really up to these days, while the American Armed Forces are already mired in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Now that the administration can't use the threat of Iranian nukes as much as they would like - and that the US Intel community has essentially rebuked the administration - I wonder what's next.
Three words: Gulf of Tonkin.
With America's beefed-up naval presence in the Persian Gulf, the administration could seek to induce a greater level of tension that may include actively pursuing low-level hostilities with Iran's navy; such an incident would certainly fan the flames for retaliatory strikes against Iran, precipitating a wider war with them. It would be 1964 all over again.
But has the administration considered its true military options in the Gulf? Surely, Navy and Air Force assets in the region could do some serious damage to Iranian infrastructure; likewise, Iran has been preparing for just such a thing since 1979 - there is no doubt they are prepared.
But can America marshal a ground response to a war with Iran? I contend America can not do so at this time - and would not be able to within five years. Our nation is overcommitted as far as ground troops are concerned - I'm talking Army and Marines here - and the key to winning a war with Persia, if it can be done, is on the ground.
The administration - and Congress - must step back from the abyss and take a hard look at not only the implications of a war with Iran, but also the benefits so far of the war in Iraq. Having been there and having followed that war closely since my tour there, I daresay America's none the better for it. Sure, that may change, but I'm not feeling really good about it right now.
If the Administration is truly committed to war with Iran, and I believe that Messrs. Bush and Cheney are, they absolutlely MUST be ready to expand America's Armed Forces to a sufficient level in which it can meet such goals.
Given the fact that the Army and Marines are hitting their operational limits in Iraq and Afghanistan, with no end in sight, I've got my doubts that Bush and Cheney will take any action to ensure this nation is well-equipped to meet any other goals that may be dictated in the near future.
In short, here's my prognostication: Navy 5th fleet has a 'Stark'-like incident, in which a missile hits a US ship, causing many casualties. Needless to say, Navy/Air Force assets are called in to strike Persian Gulf coast military bases. Iran then sends ground forces to strike American bases/FOBs in Iraq (more importantly, Iran calls on Iraqi Shia forces to declare war on Americans), a full-on civil war in Iraq takes hold within 24-48 hours, and America has no other option but to continue air strikes versus Iranian forces....and how long would it be until the nuclear option is exercised?
4 comments:
Off topic, I. Vet,
Trying to put a couple care packages together. What sort of stuff?
Foot spray, toiletries, reading material, and candy and snacks, I already know. I know some places the guys have DVD players. So, movies, I guess(?)
i also know there is some computer access. Can the guys download music? If so, how about a couple of caches of blank CD's? Would that be useful?
All my nephew says he wants is bubblegum and letters. I'm going to send him some books anyway because I want him to read -- the little fugger's supposed to be in school!
Gage:
First, I recommend going to http://ltnixonrants.blogspot.com .
Nixon is in-country right now and can provide a much better perspective on that than I could, three years removed from the war zone. Thing is, he's in an area with access to everything (nice PX'es, Burger King, etc.)
He may, however, know what line-unit types need the most.
As far as computers, I know things are pretty restricted in terms of downloading...we know from Vet Voice that many forward-deployed Joes can't see the videos posted there. Dunno if CD's would help.
New books are good, from what I recall, as well as lotion/skin stuff (dry as hell there), extra toiletries (the travel-size ones are cool), and REAL TP, as opposed to the gov't stuff they gave us, which chaps one's behind.
OH, and real coffee! If you can get a few bags of Dunkin Donuts or Starbucks, it's always a godsend to the guys in the field (as opposed to being in the Green Zone).
My father-in-law was kind enough to keep me stocked with Dunkin Donuts and real Marlboros (we often had to buy Iraqi/other smokes, which are terrible.)
Of course, the smoking thing is 'passe,' so to speak - many people understandably balk at that.
Dunno if that helped, perhaps you may post something on VV to that effect and see what those in-country are saying.
IV
Thanks, I.V.,
I read War-junkies post at VV, "Two Armies", and he groused about the "grunts" not being able to get to the PX before the "FOBbits" pick it over, so I thought I'd put together a package for Christmas for him. He has an email addy on his profile so I wrote him and am waiting to hear back. He might think it's strange, somebody he doesn't know wanting to send him a package, though. I'll see if he writes back.
Also used the link on VV to AnySoldier.com. I'm in Louisiana, so I picked someone from here. I picked a guy in a Rifle Corp figuring that meant he probably spent most of his time patrolling(?), and might be in serious need of some civilization.
The toilet paper is a good tip. Thanks.
What about you, I.V.? How are you getting along as a civilian? You okay?
Yeah, I had not thought of war-junkie's post. Good reference there. I think he just arrived back in-country lately, so it may take him a while to get back to you.
If anyone out there needs anyhting, it's the Marines and others who are deployed at the tip of the spear. I think the guys in the Green Zone and other well-built bases (Anaconda, Speicher, etc.) are pretty well covered.
Not a slam on them, by any stretch, but I remember being amazed a the stuff I saw on sale at Anaconda (near Balad) when I went there a few times in '04.
As far as me, I'm doing OK, thanks for asking. Have come out of my own funk and am still retooling to become more active in the most important issue that faces our nation today:
How to manage and hopefully stanch the hemmorhaging of our blood and treasure on a failed policy - and to work with others to devise rational, well-defined policies that efficiently apply that blood and treasure in a way that begets the maximum benefit for our nation and the wider world in general.
IV
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