27 July 2007


From NYT, 27 JUL 07, "Saudis’ Role in Iraq Frustrates U.S. Officials"

This concisely encapsulates the obvious - that US policy has undermined our (ahem) 'alliances' in the Middle East, and that a proxy war is in the making between Sunni (Saudi) and Shia (Iran), drawing in other ME players (UAE, Syria, eventually Jordan and Turkey).

Still awaiting our friends at NYT an WP to make the Pakistan connection. Just got done suggesting that to Ms. Cooper.

I doubt that Cooper will get back to me, I'm sure she gets enough mail daily; I just hope she sees what I see. I hope I'm wrong...well, wrong in that my vision of how this unfolds is worse than what comes to pass...but I fear I'm not far off th mark. I am convinced that the worst thing that can happen, politically, right now is for Pak to suffer another coup, giving the madrassa-trained zealots a chance to put their finger on the nuclear button. Question is, will they go after US forces in Iraq or the people of Mumbai/Calcutta/New Delhi?

Unfortunately, I think that they will have access to enough - and to the techs who can do this - to launch against both...with Iran caught in the middle (and they will, in true Muslim fashion - blame the Americans).

China will be none too happy about this, neither will Russia. I think China's stable enough to keep itself under control, provided no nukes hit them or overfly their turf...Russia's the wild card. GWB has fouled up with Russia, and Russia's military is still populated with senior officers who still think of US as the bad capitalists (plus, they've been embarrased in Chechnya - their own back yard - twice so far. It's like the US Army getting kicked hard in, say, Arkansas).

Yeah, yeah, full of good tidings as always, but back in the saddle with my views on the world today. Pakistan, of all places, makes me lose sleep.